Gambling Mania Over, REX is a Code and Mass Adoption Still on Hold.

EOSmastering Updated
 
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First of all, EOS is an experiment which has been live for 8 months. In this short period of time we have seen something very important happen - namely the first adoption (not mass) of Dapps (decentralised applications). We have also seen the first "fall of Dapps" as the gambling dapps took a collective nosedive this week. Time to take a realistic look at where we are currently.

Mass Adoption

That being said, we can also argue that we have not really seen "mass adoption" and that there is almost no adoption in either EOS nor crypto in general. This is kind of true, but not completely.  Adoption is really slow, but it is happening. And as the mainstream and political correctness-movement increase in power and size we will continue to see massively popular people like Jordan Peterson, Stefan Molyneux, and other "nazis" that are being thrown off centralised platforms or demonitzed add "Bitcoin accepted". Jordan Peterson recently implemented that on his webside for donations. For those who don't know, Jordan Peterson - the "controversial" psychiatrist from Canada has gained huge attention world wide for just explaining very common sense things in a deep and profound way that people can relate to. His book "12 rules for life" is the Number 1 bestseller, but New York Times refuse to list it by using the argument "He's Canadian" which has never been a problem in the past when political correct authors from Canada has been on their list. But this is how the establishment does things. And agree or disagree with Jordan Peterson, I think most people that are in crypto is tired of the powers that be. Hopefully they also realise that the powers that be are the ones that are playing us against each other.

And adoption into Bitcoin is important for adoption into platforms such as EOS.

What can you expect right now? Not much IMO. I think we are seeing some bullish tendencies in the market in general, but in terms of adoption there is not much happening. Dappradar numbers are clearly not correct. For example, they claim that farmEOS has 2600 people interacting with their contract past 24h. I doubt that 2600 people has even HEARD about farmEOS.

Gambling Dapps Are Ponzis?

Which takes us over to the gambling dapps. First of all. They are not ponzis. Not more than the entire stock market is a ponzi, or the welfare state, or life itself. In a way, everything is a ponzi. In any market you are reliant on that someone not as forward thinking as yourself will buy the stock AFTER you buy it in order for it to go up in value. The company then has to produce something of value.

A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud where clients are promised a large profit at little to no risk. Companies that engage in a Ponzi scheme focus all of their energy into attracting new clients to make investments. This new income is used to pay original investors their returns, marked as a profit from a legitimate transaction. Ponzi schemes rely on a constant flow of new investments to continue to provide returns to older investors. When this flow runs out, the scheme falls apart.

 

A ponzi often runs like this; "I'm Jeff and I sell this health kit with some smoothies and life extension powder. I need to keep nagging friends and family to buy a kit from me and the "rights" to sell that kit. When my friend Joe sells a kit, I receive "dividends" from his sale. My initial purchase of the kit is covered by my passive income from people beneath me selling kits. In the end someone is no longer able to sell kits because the market is saturated or the hype of that particular niche is over, and the people who got in last gets nothing but a long nose.

This is somewhat similar to pretty much anything. If you buy an overhyped stock late, you will not make as much money as those who bought early. However, a SERIOUS company will do things differently than just run a MLM. And here is the important different. A MLM relies solely on the marketing aspect. Doing referrals is a kind of MLM-system, but used within a broader perspective and approach it is just a PART of the whole business - not the whole business.

So keep in mind that there are "ponzi" elements to almost everything in life. Markets, and even life itself. Everything is resource based, and unless you are clever, resources run out.

The gambling dapps? Not a ponzi in my opinion. They provide a unique approach to token mining and profit sharing. They offer transparency and trustlesness that traditional casinos don't. Anyone who has played on a traditional casino knows how rude they are in their customer service and everyone I know has money "magically" disappear. They are outright shady. In EOS however, there are several mechanism that make it safer. You have the whole thing with Telegram. Instead of slow customer service, everything runs on Telegram now.  If the developers do a bad move or cheats someone it spreads like wildfire. You can get help with EOS911, block producers or in the different groups where people connect to share knowledge and latest gossip. Another huge difference from traditional casinos is the seamlessness ONCE you have gotten over the hurdle of learning to navigate in EOS. It is amazingly simple and instant.

Some people have argued that the developer and platforms should do KYC, and I tend to agree with that. As long as users can interact "anonymously".

To wrap it up. Phase 1 of gambling dapps is over. Now we will see panic and wait for the surviving dapps to re-emerge. Even the "giant" Betdice is nosediving. I wouldn't try and catch a falling knife, but I would certainly consider buying when a bottom has formed.

If crypto shows to have no utility even for gambling casinos, where in fact will crypto have any utility?

And that is why I remain long term bullish for the EOS gambling space. Who will survive? I don't know.

 

 

The Rex

There are some misconceptions about the "legend of the Rex". First of all, the REX is a code written by developers at Block.one. They are NOT creating the full product with an UI (user interface) yet. That might be a reality when their wallet comes out. When is that? No one knows. Block.one has a tendency to promise things, and then we hear nothing more of it. Like Steemit 2.0 that Dan proclaimed was "right around the corner" this summer. But perhaps his concept of "right around the corner" is different from most people. Perhaps he lives a place with really long corners.

The Rex code however is being tested by block producers on the Jungle testnet, and it has been for months. I have not heard much, which I found to be a bit alarming. Usually, when something kicks ass, you get some tweets or reddit posts with people going; "Been testing the code - holy sh...." but nothing like that. Perhaps the EOS community is just so darn mature and pragmatic.. But in the end, it is the community that has to create the UI and implement the REX onto their website/application.

But when I read the recent update from Chintai, I got my excitement pants back on. Listen to this..

Chintai 2.0 will also feature three new markets! RAM, REX, and OTC markets will all be included.

Chintai 2.0 will provide a UI for the REX. Features will include a comprehensive trading interface with the ability to buy and sell REX tokens, view full history trading chart, access historical account metrics for trades, view and manage pending sell orders, view how much REX tokens can be sold on a given day, view actual market rate, and toggle between multiple trading charts (REX and EOS price). Currently, Chintai is hosting REX on the jungle testnet: jungle.chintai.io/rex

 

This is pretty awesome.  Together with building their DEX as well as launching their native token CHEX for staking and dividends, Ram market and launching on multiple chains I am actually quite stoked about the REX as well as Chintai.

https://medium.com/@ChintaiEOS/chintai-2-0-enhancements-token-e6dc085dbb1c

Also, there is a little bit of a sidechain drama going on these days. Lot's of people saying sidechains are the new gambling dapps..well. So expect a lot of pump and dump action on the sidechains, and make sure you don't put all your EOS in one basket. I'll write more about the sidechains in another article.

So to wrap it up:

  1.  Gambling dapps are not pure MLM ponzis
  2. EOS has had adoption, but not MASS adoption
  3. The REX is not magical, but it is coming once the community implements it into one of their websites/applications

Leave a comment if you liked it or have anything to add! 

Eosmastering is not financial advice - just a private person trying to make sense of crypto and EOS in particular. I will do my best to convey what I learn to other people and break it down in layman terms. 

 

http://dev1.trybe.one/what-will-2019-bring/

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Responses

  1. Dukefish

    Yeah I totally agree with your analysis of the gambling dapps. I feel that the initial hype of them has died down and due to so many appeared many will fall back into obscurity.

    I think a large reason for the decline is people FOMO’d in as dividends were high at present and people wanted to make a quick short term gain.

    If you were using the gambling apps just to hold there own tokens I think u may get burnt if you are not careful, but a few will defo survive as there will always be people that actually enjoy the gambling.

    For real success Texas Hold Em PvP poker needs to be introduced, but I understand there are barriers to writing and implementing this on EOS atm.

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  2. Eric

    Obviously the gambling apps are only operating in a closed system of those with EOS accounts. But how much of the gambling market has been exposed to this superior and trustless system, with very low house edge? When we make it easy for new people to onboard to EOS or some app makes it worth the account creation hassel, the gambling apps will get more exposure. Hard to imagine what the ceiling is after that.

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    1. EOSmastering Post author

      Thanks for the comment! I agree..there is no exposure (no adoption) to speak of. A few thousand people in the entire world knows about gambling dapps. I do however think that some of these gambling dapps have done some wrongs, with their mining models etc..but those who are sustainable could be valued highly in the future. The online gambling market is a 50B market and Stars (pokerstars) is a 6,5B company. The entire crypto gambling market is around 100M total. 0,2% market share. So a 10x could be seen easily if EOS onboarding is made easier as you say.

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    2. koppertmilenco

      I too agree with your analysis, cause as you say, currently, the users are from within the existing eos accounts. Once users can be onboarded, I’m sure gambling dapps will be again some of the first movers in this. They know they have an intrinsic value normal casinos cant offer, and they are certainly going to try and onboard these new users once its technically possible.

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  3. Conceptskip

    Very good observations @eosmastering especially regarding ponzi schemes. One question re Gambling dapps: where is the falling knive? If you buy up gambling dapps tokens? Or if you gamble on EOS, the latter seems intact to me?
    I can’t assess online gambling, but if we look at gaming, things are getting interesting, eos knights is a nice little game, and you may not trust dappradar, but i trust my perception, and that is that item prices have been at least stable for the last month, so there is clearly a growing number of players, and then the big pieces aren’t out at all, prospectors is already a totally different caliber, and then we havent seen anything from mythical games. Yes we haven’t seen mass adoption, but adoption is going well and eos now provides a user experience which is acceptable for current web app standards.

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    1. EOSmastering Post author

      Hi! I was thinking about gambling dapps tbh. I don’t think EOS can go much lower…BP cost of surviving is around $5 and Blockchain has a warchest of 4B..Mcap is 2,5B….And you are right about gaming. Gaming is much much bigger than gambling. I suppose you have seen prospectors.io right?

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  4. Zeus69

    Great post @eosmastering, i always appreciate your analytical way of looking at things, I agree on mass adoption not happening yet too, but it will eventually, we need to get rid of the so-called banking scamsters/gangsters that control society.
    Regards,
    Mark (Zeus69)

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  5. Cryptoslice

    “Perhaps he lives a place with really long corners” made me lol :). i agree that gambling dapps arnt poniz schemes but i still dont like them because to many people have no idea that you cant win with the odds are against you no matter what “system” they use. chintia 2 sounds awesome. eos probably wont have mass adoption for years but i think this year high quality dapps will flood in and eos will have 1 million plus active uses.

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