Folks, I am going to be completely honest here. As much as I love being right, I truly enjoy and love getting people out of the way at the right time and getting them back in at a better time even more. After being a part of the 3.10+% yield camp for much of late 2017 and early 2018, I switched gears and said that we were coming back down in the 2.7ish% range. You can find all that here in my posts on Trybe, Steem, and TIMM . Since rates peaked above 3.20% there was zero doubt in my mind that were we were coming back down. It’s is amazing to me how all the “analysts” have jobs and its very very obvious why. You can call it a conspiracy but there is NO conspiracy concerning losing money. The big boys are still in and they need to get out, so what do they do? They reiterate their calls. It is a very simple process and the banks will do ANYTHING to NOT LOSE MONEY.
The FED has gone too far and too fast in a growth slowing environment where Powell is adamant about raising rates (when there is no inflation) and cutting the balance sheet significantly. This policy has finally raised its head and the market has shown its hand while the Policy Makers sit back behind the curve once again. This is the largest cutting of the balance sheet EVER and they are still raising rates and projecting more, well were.
This break is NO surprise, and the reason it was so prolonged was everyone thought rates were going to be raised next week and 4 times in 2019., with growth slowing. LMAO. I think it is safe to say that the policy makers and the big boys were wrong (once again) and this once is a win for the ole home team.