What Will 2019 Bring?
Merry Christmas everyone. I haven't been writing for a while, and to be honest I have tried not to think too much about crypto or financials in general for a while. Although impossible, it is important to force yourself to see value in doing other things as well. If you are like me you know pros and cons of letting things consume you completely.
So, where do I see the markets heading in 2019, and in particular EOS? And what has really happened in 2018? Did crypto stagnate? Or did something more or less happen behind the curtains?
It's a funny experiment to try and imagine how crypto looks for the average person on the outside. Most people consume mainstream media, and if you are "woke" enough, you don't even bother to read news anymore. You know what a waste of time it is. Not only is it a waste of time, but it clouds your mind with things that are out of your control to make you feel confused and disoriented. But for most people that are preoccupied with "normal" stuff, trying to make sense of crypto is damn impossible. Most people I talk to know that Bitcoin requires energy to produce, but they don't understand what mining really is, what the energy usage is FOR and why it is important to the consensus mechanism POW. If they are somewhat smart people and you explain to them what it is, and for example what DPOS is and why it is important and you bring forward an example like ownership of digital assets, they usually say; "ahh..that makes sense". Practical examples.
That's where we are at now. The moment I brought forward the gambling dapp space to people I know are somewhat awake they immediately got interested. They started asking questions about which crypto, how does blockchain work, is it safe etc.
2017-2018 was definitely the speculative phase. People are not stupid, and a lot of people realised how blockchain could be utilised. The problem was that most people struggled to think outside the box. In the case of crypto - inside the box was POW, and outside was DPOS. And as the crypto markets got rekt'd actual adoption started to happen. Interesting right? In 2017 and half of 2018 there were literally less than 500 people using blockchain based dapps (mainly on Ethereum network). When the crypto market peaked at USD 800B Mcap, no blockchains were functional. Either they were congested and expensive or they didn't even exist yet. As the price fell, the actual adoption started to happen. The lower the price went the more people started using cryptocurrencies and dapps.
Everything from gambling dapps on EOS, TRON, the little brother stepping forward as the second most used network as well as economic disasters like Venezuela and the increasing technological availability in third world countries as well as retailer adoption triggering Bitcoin transactions.
The number of transactions on the Bitcoin network bottomed out somewhere in April this year. Yet the price has kept plummeting. I haven't seen this chart being posted a lot.. I think it speaks volumes.
To sum it up; In 2018 we saw the speculative phase die. The price went down almost 90% and now at the end of the year we might have bottomed out. I personally think so. I made a bet with a friend that we would hit 100B mcap this year. And I obviously won. And you know, 100B is still a substantial market, and I think a lot of people might be surprised to see that we might not see 500B or 1T next year or the year after that. And personally I don't think that is very important. Think about it..EOS has a mcap of USD 2,5B, and it could literally 10x without having too much of an impact on the total mcap of all crypto currencies. It would drive the market from say 100B to 125B. Not saying that will happen, but we have seen a massive interest in EOS (and to be fair TRON as well) and the gambling dapps, that turned out to be the first utility for blockchain technology.
After tracking their ROI and following a lot of them closely for the first two months of their existence, I have decided to stop. There are sites like Cryptodividends that is doing that now, and I think my work is done. The conclusion is that first movers turned out to be the safest and most lucrative bets. Betdice and Endless are in my opinion throning, followed by MEV, MAX, CRASH. And then there are others like TOB, POKER, BG etc who might or might not make it. And I'm sure there will be others who give Betdice and Endless a good fight.
On TRON we have Tronbet as the king, but even there other dapps are trying to compete. The cool thing that many have noticed is that you can wager with more and more tokens. You can wager POKER on Betdice or one of the stablecoins (EETH, EUSD, EBTC) and the other way around. Soon we will also be able to wager EOS on Betdice on TRON, or on Ethereum for that matter. So as you realise, owning the native token for that particular Casino is going to be essential for collecting dividends.
So, unless crypto dies, which it wont, because it is impossible, and you own some tokens here and there and stake them for dividends, you might very well be earning some dividends for the rest of your life. As long as someone is willing to wager some bets, you will earn some dividends.
Next up is of course gaming, which is a much bigger industry.
I recently beta tested Prospectors.io which I'm sure most of you are aware of - with more than 1200 other registered beta testers. Around 250 completed the testing. Teams were formed on Telegram, wood were turned into girders and tools were crafted for eventually mining PGL cryptocurrency from rivers and mines. A very cool and difficult form of crypto mining. This game is going to take things to a completely different level from lets say EOSknights. Even though EOSknights has added a dungeon and some other stuff, prospectors is a real strategy game similar to age of empires or civilisation. Of course somewhat more simplistic, but they are taking a huge leap forward. The difficult thing will however be to get the game over to the EOS blockchain.
But Prospectors is just one project, there are going to be many. And there will be organisations formed, cartels, staking, renting, dividends. So keep hustling and keep staying in the frontiers of crypto.
So what about 2019?
I think 2019 will be the year of EOS based gambling dapps maturing. We will see the likes of Betdice and Endless (add your favourite casino instead if you are not pleased or disagree) become larger and add more games. We will most likely see pvp games like texas hold'em, and one thing is for certain - people will always gamble. Isn't that why we are in crypto in the first place?
2019 will also be the year when crypto gaming really started to be noticed, and real graphical games either run completely on blockchain or they only run their economy on blockchain. "Ownership of digital assets" ODA, will be something the economic mainstream newspapers will write an article or two about.
Another important thing is the chaos that surrounds social media. As Youtube, Twitter, Facebook and even Patreon has become less and less for free speech and has decided to bow for a crazy minority of leftist fascists, content creators will look elsewhere. And unless Youtube and the other platforms realise that they have chosen a fascist route and decides to turn back, these content creators that has 10, 20, 30 times more followers than NBC and CNN, will just leave and take their audience with them. If they think that Mark Dice's followers, or Stefan Molyneux followers will just start to watch some generic NPC leftist-approved content creator they are dead wrong. Even Pewdiepie is being target and portrayed as a nazi. It's simply absurd and the blockchain that is able to accommodate and get a large audience and even pay creators in crypto in a sustainable way will be infinitely highly valued. Not saying it will happen in 2019, or ever..it all depends on which direction Youtube, Patreon and Twitter decides to take. But be ready.
When it comes to the crypto markets short term, like I said, I think we are bottoming. It is exactly one year ago since we peaked, so it would not be crazy to think that we are bottoming now exactly one year later. And we seem to be holding the weekly 200 moving average as well as 100B mcap. Of course we could be manipulated further down, but at some point the valuation would just look ridiculous and we will move up.
Regardless, I'm going to take a chance and officially announce the bull-market of 2019!
What do you think? Are we ready for a bull market? Or are we going to see another depressive year?